July 2, 2022

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Recovery Above $50K Stalls, More Pain Ahead?

3 min read

Choppy rate action and indecisiveness – – this is how we can sum up the past couple of days on the cryptocurrency market.

In our last BTC cost analysis, we took a look at if whether or not $69K was the cycle’s top following the vicious corrections, and now, we take a closer check out how the marketplace is developing from a technical and on-chain perspective.

Options Market Analysis

This Friday, December 10, about $946 million worth of bitcoin choices contracts will expire in Deribit. Max pain price for this expiry is 53k. The puts at $50k strike price have the greatest open interest with 1305 agreements.

img1_btc
Source: Deribit Recognized volatility is still higher than indicated volatility( IV ). All in all, it seems that choices traders are not sure about an imminent V-shape recovery yet. Source: laevitas.ch Time-lapse alter shows a higher IV for strikes below$45k. The simple interpretation would be that the choices traders wish to hedge versus the marketplace downside. Source: laevitas.ch Futures Market Sentiment and Supply/Demand Analysis Like the market crash in May, recently’s market has actually experienced a huge drop in Futures Market open interest due to waterfalls of long liquidations. The open interest has actually dropped from its all-time high($ 28.8 B)to$17.2 B. < figure id ="attachment_156635"aria-describedby ="caption-attachment-156635"style="width: 1340px"class= "wp-caption aligncenter"> Source: Coinglass Surprisingly, as the futures market was adsorbing the hit by a huge decline in open interest, the All Exchanges Reserves revealed significant outflows from exchanges. This is completely various from May’s last significant market

crash, where we have substantial inflows to the exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant Technical Analysis Existing Market Conditions Choppy The other day, the rate moved up on the 4H timespan following a sharp fall on December 6th and is currently battling with its failed assistance. The RSI indicator is listed below 50 and follows a sag line considering that the cost was 69K(brand-new ATH). Shifting from

this bearish pattern back to bullish momentum in RSI depends upon retaking

the pointed out stopped working assistance line. The BMAX DT indication, which maps the momentum-change opportunities, is still reducing and has disappointed a positive signal. We will need to wait on the required verifications to ensure that the trend is reversed.

The majority of the technical analysis think that returning to the 53K and supporting above that level would be an excellent signal.

Chart by TradingView Where is the Key Level to a Possible Reversal Trend? Th buy orders on the major support levels caused the price to increase yesterday. Nevertheless, the more significant selling pressure from the short-term traders looking for an opportunity to exit the marketplace drove it back to lower levels. Due to the divergences that have formed in MACD and the remarkable oscillator (AO), it’s important to stay watchful of possibly lower rates on the day-to-day timeframe. At the moment, the vital support level is $42k -$40k. Do not forget that the market is afraid about the

new COVID version and possible lockdowns. Chart by TradingView The above analysis was complied by @N__E__D__A, @GrizzlyBTClover, and @CryptoVizArt. Data supplied by @tsypruyan exclusively for CryptoPotato.