December 6, 2022

Bitcoin Likely to Reach at Least $96k: In-depth Price Prediction Analysis of 2021 Cycle’s Top

4 min read

Looking ahead, there are numerous ways the rest of the present cycle can play out progressing. The following are 2 scenarios we are anticipating to play out as long as the technical and on-chain data continue to reveal strength.

Our cost targets are heavily time-based, condition-based, and mix several types of analysis. Assuming bitcoin price reaches major technical targets to the upside and on-chain metrics are flashing substantial sell signals, the probability of a bull market top will increase considerably.

If significant technical targets to the advantage are tested, and on-chain metrics reveal little to no signs of significant selling pressure – – BTC can easily push greater.

As constantly– the following is not financial recommendations and the sole opinion of the author. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the bottom of this page.

Base Case: $96k by December 2021

Our company believe BTC can reach $96k by December 2021 in our base case situation. BTC will only have to double at present prices (~$48k as of writing these lines), which we believe is sensible thinking about the deep supply exhaustion BTC remains in.

To reach this level of $96k, BTC needs to first press above the significant resistance zone between $51.1-58k.

During this retest of significant resistance, it is essential to keep track of on-chain metrics and particularly confirm that long-term holders and entities holding large quantities of illiquid supply are not offering.

If no on-chain sell signals are flashing, this will likely lead the way for a retest of the present all-time high (~$65k) taped in April 2021. The chart listed below shows a rough quote of one of lots of courses BTC could take to reach our base case target of $96k.

btc-longtarget-p1-min
Chart by TradingView. Technical and on-chain resistance above$58k is not as heavy as the$56-58k location. Considered that new big purchasers continue to enter the marketplace and shorts continue to get liquidated, breaking above the previous all-time high will not need much effort. As soon as BTC closes above the present ATH level($64.8 k ), we can expect a sped up move to the advantage as bitcoin cost gets in the rate discovery stage. The latter mean the levels where a property was never ever trading prior to; thus, there are no previous resistance levels.

Utilizing the 4-year cycle and BTC halving data, Bitcoin has actually traditionally reached its bull markets’ top late in Q4 of the year following the halving.

This indicates a blow-off top might happen sometime in December 2021 if BTC continues to follow this pattern. The longer than expected debt consolidation in between $30k to $40k provides Bitcoin less time to form structure greater. We have to keep in mind, parabolic phases in BTC lead to substantial gains in a really short quantity of time.

Another reason why we can anticipate considerably higher costs later on this year is the Elliott Wave structure forming since late 2018. Bitcoin appears to have finished wave 3 to the advantage, topping at $64.8 k, with an intricate wave 4 correction, bottoming at $28.8 k. With the recent August rally greater, it appears Bitcoin is beginning the last fifth bullish wave, possibly pushing bitcoin price considerably above previous all-time highs.

In this situation, in between the April-2021 all-time highs to our base case target of $96k, we expect whales to slowly disperse BTC to retails who are chasing after the rally. The more we see on-chain distribution, the more likely BTC will come closer to a macro top.

The crypto community has actually discussed the possibility of the booming market cycle extending into early Q1 or Q2, 2022. This need to be taken into consideration and can be viewed as a bullish driver. If the booming market extends into early 2022, this really increases our base case target from $96k to the next confluent levels in between $110k to $115k.

$178k BTC: The Bullish Case

Our company believe BTC can reach our bullish situation target of $178k by December 2021 or a bit later on, in case the cycle extends into 2022.

This will require very little on-chain selling pressure, especially as bitcoin price presses above $100k. As long as the long-lasting holders continue to hold, even with BTC at $100k, we can quickly anticipate prices to move higher.

This scenario depends on the constant supply exhaustion, where most of BTC remains illiquid. The chart below is a rough price quote of the possible course Bitcoin could take to reach the bullish target. The following is simply among lots of ways this can play out:

btc-longtarget-p2-min

Chart by TradingView. Our technical targets to the upside found high levels of confluence around $178k to $190k. This likewise matches numerous other technical-based designs, making this an area of interest for the 2021’s bull market top.

In this scenario, we can anticipate Bitcoin whales and entities holding large quantities of illiquid supply to start rapidly dispersing. Rate action at this phase will likely have gone parabolic, with $10K candles printed regularly. At these costs, evaluation on-chain metrics such as the MVRV could be reaching previous cycle peaks depending on the activity on the Bitcoin network.

While these 6-figure targets might appear challenging, they are less than a 4x boost from present levels.

To emphasize this, the circumstances are time-based and condition-based. It strongly depends upon a range of on-chain metrics flashing warning signals, specifically when the bitcoin cost reaches extremely confluent technical targets to the benefit.

At the time of this writing, BTC is currently aiming to validate a major technical buy signal which flashed last week to shift from a mid-cycle pullback into a booming market continuation.

Ideally, the $51.1-58k resistance zone should be gotten with a strong push to retest all-time highs at $64.8 k. The next couple of weeks of cost action are important in identifying the base case or bull case circumstance.